Ottawa Area Races Shouldn’t Produce a ‘Dramatic’ Election Night

Pundits and pollsters say the political landscape in the city of Ottawa won’t change much in the 2021 federal election except for a few close races.

David Moscrop, an Ottawa author and Canadian columnist who writes for the Washington post, says the city has “a handful of pretty interesting ridings, but nothing more dramatic than others.”

Here are the races he and other experts are watching more closely.

Ottawa Center

Moscrop said Ottawa Center will receive some attention due to its lack of incumbent and high-profile candidates and the high percentage of voter turnout.

“Around 80% turnout is in the heart of Ottawa and incidentally, one of the highest electoral districts in the country, one of the top 10,” said Moscrop.

David Moscrop is an Ottawa-based Canadian author and columnist who writes for The Washington Post. (SRC)

Despite being the smallest geographic constituency in the region, the race has gained more of the spotlight after Infrastructure Minister Catherine McKenna announced she was stepping down from federal politics.

In 2019, McKenna won with over 48% of the vote, beating the NDP by 15,475 votes.

New Democrat Angella MacEwen is trying to win back the constituency for the NDP against former Liberal MP Yasir Naqvi.

“While that sounds liberal and, if you bet you’re probably betting liberal, in theory it could go to the New Democrats,” Moscrop said.

Eric Grenier, who runs the CBC Poll Tracker and is the author and publisher of, said he would be watching Ottawa Center closely on Monday.

“This is the riding where if the NDP is having a good night, maybe they could win it. night, ”Grenier said.


Kanata-Carleton could be caught between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Ottawa City Councilor Jenna Sudds replaced Liberal incumbent Karen McCrimmon on the ballot.

In 2019, McCrimmon won by 4,385 votes, the smallest margin of any constituency in Ottawa.

Jennifer McAndrew is running for the Tories and Moscrop said it was unclear if her party was targeting the riding because it could turn from red to blue.

The Tories have publicly pledged to build the Confederation Line to Kanata, while remaining silent on the proposed extension to Barrhaven – an indication the party hopes to overthrow the western constituency.

Eric Grenier, who runs the CBC Poll Tracker and is the author and publisher of, said he would be watching Ottawa Center closely on Monday. (SRC)


Changing demographics in neighboring Carleton could make things interesting on election night, but Grenier said incumbent Conservative Pierre Poilievre has a good grip on the riding.

He won Carleton with over 46% of the vote in 2019, sealing the deal with 5,629 more ballots than his Liberal opponent.

“It is becoming more and more suburban and less rural, so in the future it could be a constituency that the Liberals might seek to take back from the Conservatives,” Grenier said,

He added that it would be quite surprising if the Liberals were to win this time around.

“They would certainly like to show that they are making progress and that the demographic evolution of the constituency is starting to work in their favor,” said Grenier.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, says Canadians are not paying much attention to this election, even in the city of Ottawa. (SRC)

People don’t care

David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data, agreed these ridings are the ones to watch, at least for those who are listening.

This campaign, according to Coletto, was defined by people paying less attention to it, even in Ottawa, an area where turnout is generally higher.

“There are indications in the polls that we’re doing that people are just less engaged in this election. They don’t see any really high stakes. And frankly, they’re annoyed that we’re going through this as the pandemic worsens. “said Coletto.

Coletto said those indications, and fewer polling stations due to pandemic demands, will likely lead to lower voter turnout on Monday.

“I don’t think there is anything that changes the fact that we just don’t really want this election, even though we are more political animals than other parts of the country,” he said. -he declares.

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